Nearly one-third of the world’s population marks the end of the Lunar Year of the Ox this weekend. As the Bull exits and the Tiger enters, we can look back and see the mess that is left behind.

Since the 2006 coup, Thailand has seen a increase in the Military’s influence over the affairs of state. In the little more then a year since Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva took office, this strengthening of Military influence has become even more apparent. Through its dominance over Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC), a cold-war relic resurrected after the 2006 coup, the Military has taken upon itself roles traditionally left to the civilian branches of government. At a recent seminar held at Chulalongkorn University, Dr. Naruemon Thabchompon said that the Internal Security laws (ISA) allow senior Military officers to effectively act as “kingmakers” in Thai politics. Naruemon noted that this was in keeping with what she termed the “Thai style of democracy,” which allows “prominent personalities to have a disproportionate say in [the question of] by whom and how the country is ruled.

In contrast, the militaries quiet take over of Thailand’s refugee policy has drawn less attention. Prior to 2006, Thai refugee policy was shaped by balancing the concerns of the Prime Minister's office, the Ministry Foreign Affairs, the Military and the National Security Council. That all changed when ISOC was brought back from the grave and the Military set the tone. The consequences of this shift became apparent when world media exposed the abuse of Rohingyas fleeing persecution in Burma at the hands of Thai military personnel. The harsh ISOC polices directed towards the Rohingya, drew a torrent of criticism on the Abhisit administration soon after it came into office. After initially defending the Military and denying any wrong doing, in the face of photographs and videos depicting the abuse, PM Abhisit had to admit to CNN that this policy was not his and that he had not known of it. Who then ordered the mistreatment? That remains unclear to this day. Apparently not even the PM is allowed to know this.¹

Over the past weekend the Thai Military, through ISOC, was allowed to dictate Thailand’s border policy once again, leaving it to the civilians to clean up the mess. As with the Lao Hmong a month before, Thai military personnel tried to repatriate several thousand Karen refugees seeking shelter along Thailand’s western border from the junta-organized military campaigns in Eastern Burma. Several Karen families living in Thailand were returned to Burma, before local NGOs could raise the alarm and the process stopped. While the Thai authorities insisted that no Karen were forced to return to Burma against their will, according to sources on the ground, Thai soldiers went to the refugee settlements to pressure them to leave. One refugee interviewed quoted a soldier saying: "If you do not go back, we will ask big trucks to come pick you up and throw you all into the sea." Given last years experiences with the Rohingya boat-people and the forced repatriation of 4,600 Lao Hmong, the Karen have all the reason to believe the Thai military will be true to its word.

Despite repeatedly getting burned, the civilian government remains silent and the army marches on. This time it took an intervention by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and a group of 28 U.S. Congressmen, who wrote a letter PM Abhisit, to stop the planned deportation. Once again the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was sent out to apologize and explain “Thai policy” to an increasingly frustrated and disbelieving audience. The recurrence of the next embarrassing event could be avoided, if the civilian branch of government decides to re-take control of Thailand’s foreign policy. As we cross into the new lunar year, Thailand can only hope that it will be the Tiger that wags the tail, and not the other way around.

¹From official transcript of CNN interview with PM Abhisit Vejjajiva on Rohingya issue, 12 February 2009: “PM: It’s not exactly clear whose work it is, all the authorities say that it’s not their policy but I have reason to believe that some incidences of this happened.” Accessed at: http://media.thaigov.go.th/pageconfig/viewcontent/viewcontent1e.asp?pageid=472&directory=1944&contents=28341