The Abhisit government’s recent lifting of the State of Emergency decree in key northern provinces has seen the Red Shirt machine swing back into motion in what is widely regarded as heartland ‘Thaksin country’. In the same week as the decree was revoked, events were held in several northern cities, including the regional capital of Chiang Mai. A rally attended by up to 500 Red Shirt supporters was conspicuously held in the midst of the throbbing Sunday night Street Markets, followed a few days later by a symbolic ceremony attended by Red Shirts adorned in black to ‘commemorate’ the 90th birthday of Privy Council head, Prem Tinsulanond. Local Red community radio stations, silenced since mid-May, are back on air and Red publications – rebranded – again sit on newsagent shelves.
The post-decree rallies seemingly confirm that the violent climax to the Bangkok protests and the subsequent interregnum have done little to dampen northern political sentiments. Why then has the Abhisit coalition deigned to unleash such sentiments when the decree, as resented in some quarters as it was, effectively brought such dissent to heel? There is no in-principle reason why the State of Emergency could not have been extended for months to come, as will presumably be the case in Bangkok, or even indefinitely, as in the troubled southern provinces. Official statements indicate that reviving the ailing northern tourist sector – with several countries maintaining prohibitive travel warnings due to the ongoing presence of the Emergency decree – and acting in accord with the much-maligned reconciliation process were the main factors in the decision.
There are however a number of other cards on the table, which together give insight into an emerging dual-track strategy being devised to manage provincial unrest. As in neighbouring Burma, the twin tenets of this strategy are the structural pillars of development and security, defined of course in terms resonant with state interests. In terms of ‘development’, the state has framed this in terms of a cradle-to-the-grave welfare package aimed to ameliorate what is considered to be one of the salient grievances undergirding Red-Shirt politics, that is, social and economic inequality. As such, a raft of welfare measures has been proposed or commenced, including extended free education, pensions for the elderly, utilities and transport subsidies, debt relief schemes and raising the minimum wage. Furthermore, in the north, a pilot project has been initiated in Lamphun, just south of Chiang Mai, in which one and a half thousand rai of land has been purchased by the government for distribution to the local landless. Just as Thaksin did in the wake of the social unrest inspired by the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the incumbent government is seeking to create a new kind of social compact with the poor and working classes in order to produce a manageable level of social stability. The irony of course is that the Democrats have for years been lambasting welfare policies as fiscally irresponsible.
In terms of security, revelations of a proposed new 25,000 strong Infantry Division at Mae Rim, on the outskirts of Chiang Mai coincided with the announcement of the lifting of the decree. Whilst it has yet to be green-lighted, the 10 billion baht project – reportedly a pet-project of outgoing Army Chief, Anupong Paochinda – could begin roll-out within six months, dramatically changing the demographics and culture of the Red-dominated Mae Rim district. More obviously, the presence of such high numbers of troops provides a further layer of security personnel should the state consider it necessary to discipline troublesome local Reds.
It is also well known that security agents recorded contact details of Red Shirt protestors – including those from the north – rallying in Bangkok, and have subsequently ‘visited’ some upon returning to their home provinces. Moreover, Red Shirt guards advise that police are actively monitoring local activities, including nightly surveillance runs past the Red Shirt’s symbolic headquarters, the Warorot Hotel. Guards estimate that some 100 plain-clothes operatives attended the Sunday night rally.
In addition to the development and security measures, a further wildcard may be in play, though not necessarily a direct outcome of government strategies. It is no longer clear that Chiang Mai remains the ‘Red stronghold’ it is popularly portrayed as, and despite its reputation and association with Thaksin, an increasingly fluid political reality exists at ground level. Whilst it is true that the urban peripheries have been dominated by Red supporters, there are signs even here of a growing Thaksin-fatigue. Outside, for example, the Shinawatra silk outlet in Sankhamphaeng – Thaksin’s birth district – street vendors declare themselves weary of the bitter color-coded politics. For other Sankhamphaeng residents, memories of Thaksin’s largesse – the new roads, the street lights and the like – now reach back on ten years. Whilst they may still elicit a certain affinity for the man, ongoing loyalty requires ongoing acts of patronage.
Moreover, the actual city centre of Chiang Mai exercises a kind of resolute aloofness from party politics, though with increasing anger leveled against the Reds over the downturn in the local economy. Local politics reflects this fluidity and lack of political commitment. Mayoral elections over the past few years have fluctuated between Red and Yellow leaning candidates, with a Democrat candidate winning as recently as 2007. In the 2009 elections, though a Red-aligned candidate won, he did so with an underwhelming performance of only some 22% of total voters.
A sober analysis of numbers presenting at public rallies also questions the ‘Red Stronghold’ thesis. On the night after the first spate of deaths in Bangkok on 10 April, only a few hundred people gathered to protest and remember their dead at Chiang Mai’s City Hall. Nightly rallies during the Bangkok protest gathered anywhere between fifty to a few hundred patrons. As reported above, last Sunday night’s rally attracted at most 500 supporters, with the subsequent Prem ‘commemoration’ drawing a crowd countable in the dozens. Whilst collectively not insignificant, these numbers do not suggest the fierce enthusiasm for the Red movement that is often projected onto the northern capital. Whilst it may be that these supporters represent the tip of a substantial less-visible Red iceberg, it may simply be that support for the Reds is not as substantive as it once was.
The impending threat of internal military colonization represented by the proposed Mae Rim Infantry Division, the prospective inducements of cradle-to-the-grave welfare support, together with the post-Thaksin turn in national level Red Shirt politics poses a number of challenges for northern Reds. It could be that these measures erode local support, particularly given that the figure of Thaksin remains the deepest link to the movement for many of the rank and file. Alternatively, the measures may consolidate the movement, providing the opportunity for northern Reds to further clarify and articulate their struggle, and to demonstrate that the movement is not simply a product of elite capital or of cheap handouts, but rather a genuine grass-roots movement for democratic social and political reform, transcending icon and patronage. How this unfolds in the north has dramatic implications for the future shape of the entire country.
34 responses so far ↓
1 David Brown // Sep 6, 2010 at 1:28 pm
thanks for the detail… hadnt heard about the infantry at Mae Rim
just confirms the military are encouraged by the Abhisit government to be in charge everywhere… Burma here we come
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2 devil in the details // Sep 6, 2010 at 8:32 pm
Interesting read – but seems like just chasing the tail.
Puzzling comments of “crowd up to 500″ but according to “red guards” there were 100 plainsclothes officers. hard to visualize.
“Just as Thaksin did in the wake of the social unrest inspired by the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the incumbent government is seeking to create a new kind of social compact with the poor and working classes in order to produce a manageable level of social stability”
Good – government delivering something to address peoples needs. The only difference then is Thaksin? Must question why would it must be him to make the action politically legitimate.
“growing Thaksin-fatigue” Apparently peoples real life issues are being distracted from?
“memories of Thaksin’s largesse – the new roads, the street lights and the like – now reach back on ten years. Whilst they may still elicit a certain affinity for the man, ongoing loyalty requires ongoing acts of patronage.”
Sounds like politics as usual – Thaksin largesses was no different that any other Thai politician hoodwinking the populace into think their own money given back to them with a 50-75% haircut came from the man himself – rather than being recognized as his source of income and power. So for the northerners (and I guess Thai in general), corruption is fine as long as it is the local guy and the local elite (i.e. construction companies) and local people benefit from the trickle down more than others.
“ongoing loyalty requires ongoing acts of patronage.” speaks for itself about the general level of political development – and lack of democratic fundamentals or principles anywhere to be found. Good luck to the Reds using T as inspiration for these yet to be experienced principles in thai.
“increasing anger leveled against the Reds over the downturn in the local economy. ” At some point the people generally do figure out how things work.
“Local politics reflects this fluidity and lack of political commitment” Nice summary. Only need to add that in this environment the most successful are more likely to be the morally bankrupt and corrupt. In contrast, having principles generally can hinder the “fluidity” needed to pander, rather than communicate, educate, inspire, and lead.
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3 Tarrin // Sep 6, 2010 at 9:21 pm
I think its very hard to gauge what the populace from the North is thinking about their political preference right now. Don’t forget that we are only 3 months away from the May massacre, I’m surprised that 500 people even gather for political movement after all that, some people said we might not see political gathering for a good 6 months. Furthermore, a 21 years old red guard from Chieng Mai has been gunned down by a man wearing a military issued uniform according to some witness, he died a few days later, under that threatening circumstance no one want to speak too load I’m sure if it. However, if the author checked the red concert at Pataya you might be surprise that there are over thousand people joining the event.
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4 Concerned // Sep 6, 2010 at 11:51 pm
Police estimated 4,000 at the Pattaya red shirt concert on Saturday 4/9.
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5 Nganadeeleg // Sep 6, 2010 at 11:58 pm
Tarrin: Over 4,000 at the Pattaya concert according to police (more according to other reports)
100 baht entrance fee too, so they paid to attend, rather than being paid to attend as is so often claimed.
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6 Steve // Sep 7, 2010 at 1:04 am
Having clocked up a few years of living in Chiang Mai rather than just reading about it, I’m bound to say that I view the oft-touted image of it as a “Red stronghold” wildly overblown. Yes, there are the gatherings of the faithful at the Warorot Hotel and very, very occasionally a few pick-ups and motorbikes carrying red-clad supporters on the roads – though not for some time now. At the height of the May events, they blocked a downtown bridge and a main road outside a mall – and some hotheads set fire to a building. The city is home to CM51 – unfortunately a fairly unsavoury bunch who have made a bad name for themselves with homophobic opposition to an AIDS-prevention march as being somehow “not Lanna” and may well be connected to the death of a yellow-shirt figure’s father. There was also enough strength of feeling to mount a very vocal protest when Korn came to speak at CMU. But, well, that’s it…..
The notion that it is “held” by Reds is frankly laughable. I have no doubt that there are still some Thaksin-grateful placemen in a few positions of power/influence – but the effects of that aren’t obvious. As for the proposed new base at Mae Rim – one should be aware that just about all of the land on the west side and much on the east side of the Mae Rim road leading out of Chiang Mai is government-owned and already packed with army installations of one kind or another….. including Special Forces and Artillery regiments. Of course, a further division (if it happens) adds to that – but don’t imagine that there’s exactly a shortage of military resources in the area now.
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7 sam deedes // Sep 7, 2010 at 4:24 am
Whilst it may be that these supporters represent the tip of a substantial less-visible Red iceberg, it may simply be that support for the Reds is not as substantive as it once was.
Or it may simply be that the farmers are busy with the growing season once again. Wait till next year.
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8 David Brown // Sep 7, 2010 at 11:52 am
are the people of Chiang Mai and Thailand generally, including Steve above, happy to be under military control?
or would they prefer some other government?
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9 MaattB // Sep 7, 2010 at 12:21 pm
“Whilst it may be that these supporters represent the tip of a substantial less-visible Red iceberg, it may simply be that support for the Reds is not as substantive as it once was.”
With Thaksin’s substantially shrunk ATM-potency, “it may simply be that ATM-like-cash-handout support for the Reds is not as substantive as it once was.”
But this is NOT to refute Nganadeeleg’s faith that there were a scattering of Reds ” who paid to attend, rather than being paid to attend” . . .
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10 chris beale // Sep 8, 2010 at 2:12 am
Lao-speaking Northeastern Thailand – Isaarn – has long been Thaksin heartland, more than the North.
It would be interesting to know how much of Chiang Mai changes are reflected in Isaarn.
I certainly know of Isaarn people who previously supported Thaksin now saying they don’t.
But how much is this simply keeping their heads down, while repression continues ?
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11 Peter // Sep 8, 2010 at 4:02 am
The number of only 500 reds in the rally simply reflects the fact that their radio stations have not fully reopened. As soon as they have the stations up and running, people begin to know what is going on in town.
No wonder the military/CRES enjoys raiding radio stations, whether they are in Chiengmai or Udorn, or Vibhavadee Rangsit Rd in Bangkok. Similarly, the state of emergency still needs to be enforced in the capital because as soon as it is lifted, taxi radio stations will spring up like mushrooms. Just wait what CRES will do this coming 19th, which marks two important events, but if they prevent people from tying red ribbons at Ratchaprasong, be ready to be accused of double standard because they did nothing to stop yellow leader Chamlong from blocking Sukhumvit Rd near UNESCO office (under the same emergency law).
CRES started deploying soldiers in subway and skytrain stations but passers-by and passengers look at them as if they are hungry ghosts. Even a passing policeman sneered at them.
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12 Ricefield Radio // Sep 8, 2010 at 10:06 am
A couple of things.
A lot of people who have not spent a lot of time in the North think that the Red supporters are all uneducated and stupid farmers unable to think for themselves. This is not the case and the majority of Reds, and northerners for that matter, look at the re-branding by the government of the TRT policies as exactly that, re-branding Thaksin’s policies. They feel that their standard of living would have increased under a TRT/PPP/PTP government and have seen it eroded under the inept military and Democrats governments. Abhisit could give everyone a million baht and they still wouldn’t respect him, that respect is cultural and he just doesn’t understand the difference between himself and Thaksin, never has, never will. Probably everyone remembers the photo of Thaksin riding a motorbike through the mud and not wearing a helmet in Isan, a picture worth a thousand words. I personally remember the photo-op pic of Abhisit helping farmers wearing a suit and patent leather loafers. That’s the difference, the difference people see, or difference they want to see. Thaksin willing to get dirty and Abhisit looking like it’s such a personal burden to get mud on his shoes. Abhisit has no connection with common people and Thaksin still does.
Steve is quite right the Mae Rim base is huge. Having said that it’s also populated with soldiers and Noncoms from the area. I’ve often thought that in a full out civil war scenario if the foot soldiers would shoot their uncles or their officers, like they did in Bangladesh. The situation in Bangkok is not a true measure as a large quantity of the Soldiers used in the front line crackdown were from non red areas.
As for the reds disappearing in the North, don’t think so. I would say they have become more discreet in their actions and have broken into smaller groupings. I know a number who apparently have cooled to the reds but when cornered on their own, to a person, they all say that they have not really changed much. This flip flop between public and private conversations is a result the the Red witch hunt and intimidation campaign of the Military, police and government.
This is also very troubling because some of the more radical elements have obviously gone underground. These radical elements of the reds were once tempered under the UDD umbrella to some degree but now are in a position, if they move that way, to really create havoc like in the far South. With all the UDD leadership in jail on serious charges and the Yellow leadership running free on the same, this could really add fuel to their fire.
So there you have my viewpoint. Just as many Reds supporters now as before the Bangkok protests, they are just more cautious and not as obvious, but still red.
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13 william duckworth // Sep 8, 2010 at 2:07 pm
Thanks all for your contributions – many worthwhile points. Ricefield Radio, the issue of ‘culture’ is I think one of the most interesting. Taking it in just a slightly different direction, there is amongst some of the people I talk to, a cultural sense that Thaksin exhibits a far more admirable kind of ‘masculinity’ than Abhisit. This has been commented on a few times. Thaksin’s ‘manliness’ is respected due to the fact that, ostensibly acting alone, he took on many of the big boys – military, bureacracy, Privy Council etc – and for quite a while, prevailed handsomely. As you say, the people of the North are far from stupid, and they know perfectly well that Abhisit survives only because of his powerful backers. For many, this translates back into a lack of ‘manliness’, particularly when compared to Thaksin. So this cultural dimension is at play in addition to Thaksin’s image of getting down in the dirt with the people as opposed to Abhisit’s projected haughtiness.
Despite this, I am still increasingly finding people saying things to the effect of ‘if Thaksin does good, I like Thaksin, if Abhisit does good, I’ll like him’. I’ve spoken to many people who say that at first they liked Thaksin, but now they’ve moved on due to the events in Bangkok. I haven’t to date heard people say they’ve moved on due to Abhisit’s welfare measures, perhaps because most of them remain in the ‘planning phase’ (and are pretty modest, with serious limitations at that). In fact, most Reds I talk to aren’t even aware that such welfare measures are on the table being discussed.
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14 Jim Taylor // Sep 8, 2010 at 2:46 pm
no one has mentioned that on 4 September 2010 yet another Red Shirt former unarmed guard, 21 year old Krisadaa Klaahaan died from injuries received after an assassination attempt by certain state apparatus on 20 September 2010 as he was walking home with his girlfriend in Chiangmai from the market. The orders came through Abhisit & CRES. He was shot with M16 (calibre 5.56 mm) military rifle. Another life lost under repression and relentless hunt for opposition to the unelected PM Abhisit Vejjajiva’s government. Does anyone care? There are many people who do care but their voices are either silenced or not heard above the chaos, hegemonic propaganda, and disturbance generated by the reactionary far order. Did anyone also note how scared ordinary red shirts are in the north right now living under the current regime? As for the Gov’s benefits to the north- this is not true, In fact the GOv have slashed support for “red areas” and rewarded “yellow areas” (e.g. Chiangmai is to receive only Bt 4 million for TAO next year while Loburi will receive more than Bt 200,million!) /
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15 Ricefield Radio // Sep 8, 2010 at 5:11 pm
Bill, I don’t think that manliness is cultural. My feeling is the cultural difference is Thaksin was from a wealthy Chiang Mai family he went to school with a lot of them at Montfort and grew up in a predominantly rural area and as all northerners he speaks northern first and central second. In other words, although wealthy, he’s looked at as one of “us” not one of “them”. Abhisit on the other hand comes from an elite Bangkok family, wasn’t even born in the country, likely couldn’t order lunch in Northern and as such does not gain the cultural respect of the people. In other words he’s one of them, the same thems that have looked down on the north for a century or more maybe even since the Sukhothai era. And I have a feeling that the people you talk to are telling you what they think you want to hear, that’s another cultural thing in the North.
Jim – I commented about the way the reds feel. “This flip flop between public and private conversations is a result the the Red witch hunt and intimidation campaign of the Military, police and government.” No one is talking to anyone they don’t trust anymore. This is definitely different from March and April when I was interviewing people in the north and everyone had a comment.
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16 Nobody // Sep 8, 2010 at 7:17 pm
JT C14. A fair few months ago (May actually) I actually heard that “security issues” would move to the “private sector” but in a structure a little different from what you lay out. I even offered the info to a foreign journo who wasnt very interesteed as it didnt fit with the analysis peddled at that time.
I have often been quite critical of your unsubstantiated claims in the past but this time find myself kind of corroborating this one but with a somewhat different take based on different information. I think more similar incidents to this and others are quite likely.
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17 Tarrin // Sep 8, 2010 at 8:59 pm
Nobody – 16
What kind of information is that? As far as a report from Thairath said, the gunman was wearing military issued uniform (not the full combat gear thought but rather the one for day to day activity) and the gun is confirm by witness to be the M16. It might be a set up set my the red themselves to pain the military as a bad guys, but then again that beg the question why the government never attempt to arrest them or make any denouncement.
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18 chris beale // Sep 8, 2010 at 10:47 pm
Ricefield Radio #12 &15, JT#14, Nobody#16 :
several factors at work here need (further) mentioning -
1) the current peace efforts between Peua Thai and at least some elements within the governing parties.
2) linked to this is the fact that it is not simply repression which is keeping the lid on things right now – though JT is to be congratulated for being one of the few highlighting this (Bangkok Post to its’ great credit has given guarded coverage, ditto The Nation).
It is also a widespread assessment am0ng the Red Shirts that though “our time is coming”, the time is not ripe just yet. General Prem – 90 years old – is still alive.
3) Certainly the widespread silence is making it much more difficult for journalists to cover what is really happening in Lanna and Isaarn – not that many, apart from Seth Mydans, did much (or anything) to cover what was building up in the rural heartland of those regions, until the Songkran riots and then this years’ burning of Bangkok.
4) Has anyone heard from Seth recently ??
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19 william duckworth // Sep 9, 2010 at 2:01 am
Jim,
Tarrin (no. 3) mentioned a 21 year old killed recently – is this the same person you are referring to or have there been two killings that you know of?
I have been down to Wat Prasing where the funeral for the deceased is being held and actually managed to meet his father. All are of course devestated. Reports given to me however differ from some of the details mentioned above. No one is aware of witnesses and there is no talk that the killer was in uniform (which may be a little contradictory! I guess the point being made is that noone was seen in uniform). The suspicion is that the killer was from a regiment in Lopburi, and yes, an M16 was the weapon.
Jim, I certainly think there are people who care about these things, not least those who come and pay respects to the young man nightly (the funeral is still a few days off).
I for one, for whatever reason, actually find your ‘wild speculations’ as someone else put it, very interesting. Can you offer any substantiation however for what you’ve said here about CRES / AV?
Jim, the funny thing is, and this is coming from multiple sources, that the Reds dont convey overwhleming fear as you suggest. The sense is of defiance and anger. Of course, this is just anecdotal, but its from more than just one casual acquaintance if you get my drift. It could of course just be bravado, but regardless, the sense is – at least from the ‘hardcore’ Reds – that they wont be intimidated into submission.
Tarrin, no set up here. Real dead body, real M16 bullets etc. No need to paint the military as bad guys.
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20 Tarrin // Sep 9, 2010 at 11:07 am
william duckworth – 18
I got the info from Thairath, I think that’s why CRES send people to Thairath to “warn” them about how they report their news, then later on Suthep came out and deny that they are going to close down Thairath.
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21 Nobody // Sep 9, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Tarrin C17. No it wasnt about reds setting it up. To be honest Im not sure I want to go into lots of detail here. Suffice to say, if a bit simplisticially, that certain people seeing the police inaction of April/May decided other methods were more appropriate – outside of CRES/military/government chain of command too.
By the way, there are and always have been plenty of killings in Thailand carried out by military/police not acting on commands of their military/police superiors.
WD C18. I would say that identifying the killing with Abhisit/CRES is wrong and missing what is happening. It is however, effective propaganda especially if used in the single source indoctrination centers that were precviously set up by the red movement. I dont know if they still continue or if they have seen funding dry up or been closed down by the authorities. Look to how red propagandists state anythign as fact without any evidence and even when something like the Abhisit tape is shown to be fake they still continue to state it is real. The weird thing here is why is it being spun in the wrong direction?
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22 Jim Taylor // Sep 9, 2010 at 6:48 pm
Will & others, I believe it is real fear out there; people need to be careful about exposing themselves to anyone because CRES has sent people, including according to one informant wives so as to talk to families, communities, to probe and find out where individuals stand in terms of (anti-fascist) resistance. People who were outspoken and active during the protests are traced one by one (their pictures were taken). Two are curently being watched at this time. Three core leaders have already been killed in Lumpoon, and one core leader in Chiangmai. People cannot keep moving/hiding because it is just not feasible and there is no forest these days. Surachai Saedang has just given a talk to tell people to stay low as there is no point in being a sitting target at this stage…
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23 Tarrin // Sep 9, 2010 at 9:34 pm
Nobody – 20
Its pretty normal practice, after the 66/23 being issued and all the ex-communist members being assimilated back to society there were many report about mystery killing and abduction of those ex-communist members so what you said is totally possible, but then again, should sort of practice shouldn’t be encourage in fashion.
Moreover, I want to stress about your perception about red propaganda is that, there’s nothing wrong about reporting wrong or mislead news as long as the plaintiff can sue the offender and so on. If you accuse the red of using single sources indoctrinate then ASTV Manager is as guilty as such. However, banning them just because they say something opposite of you is unacceptable, no matter which side.
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24 Jim Taylor // Sep 9, 2010 at 9:59 pm
Bill, re- your NM contribution, just a quick note- it was found that many meuang, not just chiangmai, constitute a high percentage of yellow shirts because of their access to satellite ASTV, and because many traders and urban elites in provincial towns aspire to “privilege like the amaat” (as one person told me during fieldwork). The mass of red shirt support in the north, with exceptions of course, actually comes mainly from surrounding villages, small market centres and nearby district towns… This is the same in Isaan. Secondly, statistically, it would be found that the internal migration to Chiangmai from BKK has been significant among the middleclasses since the late 1980s seeking a better lifestyle and escaping the polluted & crowded metropolis. No doubt they bring their ideological and political values and aspirations with them.
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25 Simon // Sep 9, 2010 at 11:38 pm
Jim
Would you care to give us a source for the ‘assassination’ assertions below? Pardon my scepticism, but this seems completely unfounded and somewhat difficult to believe to me.
“no one has mentioned that on 4 September 2010 yet another Red Shirt former unarmed guard, 21 year old Krisadaa Klaahaan died from injuries received after an assassination attempt by certain state apparatus on 20 September 2010 as he was walking home with his girlfriend in Chiangmai from the market. The orders came through Abhisit & CRES.”
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26 Ricefield Radio // Sep 10, 2010 at 2:03 am
Nobody C20 on c18 – I think you have missed the big picture by not looking past the trees. As Abhisit in the end, according to the constitution, is in charge of the Police, the military, CRES and the country the responsibility its clearly on his shoulders. This isn’t Red propaganda it’s a fact and if he can’t reign in the authorities under his control it is his direct problem.
You also are convinced that the Reds propagandists, as you call them, “state anythign as fact without any evidence”. This is often correct but the Democrat/CRES propagandists, headed by Suthep, are just as active and just as controversial in the unsubstantiated and wild statements they come out with. It’s only fair to say both sides are in a propaganda war which is not one sided.
You site the Abhisit tape as “fake”, but is it. The government would not allow outside independent scrutiny of it, insisting that it be checked internally by parties aligned with the Government. That’s not independent analysis even if the tape was faked. CRES has come out with their own wild claims as well the hand drawn anti monarchy map and the assets freeze of Red funders who almost all were taken off the list after the damage was done.
Everyone has the right to their opinion but one must also be careful about looking independently at both sides or one becomes a part of the propaganda machine of one side or the other.
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27 Suzie Wong // Sep 10, 2010 at 11:04 am
Simon,
The details of the assassination using M16 by the Thai State ” น้องเจมส์ตกเป็นเหยื่อล่า สังหารของอำนาจรัฐทมิฬ ” is available in any local news sources in the last few days.
You can see the photo of the 21 years old young man from the ThaiEnews on its today’s front page.
วันพฤหัสบดี, กันยายน 09, 2010
ThaiEnews
***กำหนดการสวดอภิธรรมศพ นาย กฤษดา กล้าหาญ (น้องเจมส์)
ชาตะ 20 ตุลาคม 2532 – มรณะ 4 กันยายน 2553
น้องเจมส์-กฤษฎา กล้าหาญ เป็นเด็กดี รักชาติรักประชาธิปไตย เชิญร่วมงานสวดศพน้องเจมส์ในเวลา19.00น. 7-11ก.ย.ที่วัดพระสิงห์ เชียงใหม่ 12ก.ย.เวลา10.00น.ชมวิดิทัศน์การต่อสู้ของน้องเจมส์ก่อนตกเป็นเหยื่อล่า สังหารของอำนาจรัฐทมิฬ 16.00 น.ประชุมเพลิง 13ก.ย.เวลา09.00พิธีเก็บเถ้ากระดูก และถวายผ้าบังสุกุล
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28 Jim Taylor // Sep 10, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Simon #24
Nothing in English yet- which is odd- but everyone is talking about this incident among Red Shirts;
see:
http://info.redshirtthailand.com/info_redshirtthailand/?p=2043
http://www.internetfreedom.us/showthread.php?tid=6295
http://thaienews.blogspot.com/2010/09/blog-post_8573.html
As an aside, on the (in-)discriminate shooting by army (English) see:
http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2010/09/10/ordered-to-shoot-indiscriminately/
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29 Question // Sep 10, 2010 at 1:04 pm
Ricefield radio’s thoughts on Thaksin being viewed as a “local” more than Abhisit is correct.
However, this gives rise to two thoughts:
1. Is their a difference in local elite to local farm boy? Thaksin came from the local elite and claims to having pulled himself up by his bootstraps are typical political spin. Local elites primary source of power is the patronage system, e.g. Granted concessions/monopolies, Insider deals, corruption from way back.
Truly local/rural men of the people have been and far between, most likely rising thru temple largesse, and royally sponsored higher education. Generally a lack of real opportunity reflecting lack of development. Few end up in politics.
2. The successful self branding as a local boy in the north seems counter productive and self defeating to a national leader needing to be inclusive and reconciliatory. Short term strategy.
3. But then Thaksin has always been a divisive character with agressive, combative, bullying tactics being a highly successful strategy for him. He has been masterful at mixed signals, public statements that are polar opposite to back room strategy. Control media, preemptively name/define the “issue”, manipulate, and divisively play people against
each other. The resulting dysfunction and lack of trust can then only be brought into line buy himself – and of course to the maximum benefit to himself.
Pretty much a small minded politician with massive ambitions manifesto. But then is that all thai society and institutional development is capable of at this point?
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30 Ricefield Radio // Sep 10, 2010 at 1:31 pm
If we take Abhisit and Anapong at their word and they didn’t order troops to fire on civilians, WHO DID? In the end it doesn’t really matter, atrocities, or genocide, or fear, or loss of control ruled the day. Innocent people were in fact targeted and killed, there is no hiding that fact it’s on film thousands of meters of it. The two that are standing on the top rung of the podium are Abhisit and Anapong, head of the government and head of the military. Wrong was done and neither of these two have the courage to step forward and take responsibility for the actions that took place on their watch. They may not have pulled the trigger but they are still responsible for the actions. That’s cowardly and Thailand deserves more from it’s leaders than pointing fingers at others to divert the blame from themselves.
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31 Ricefield Radio // Sep 10, 2010 at 3:25 pm
Question. Just a couple of things.
1. Is their a difference in local elite to local farm boy?
There sure is now; but when Thaksin was growing up in San Kampang not so much. In 50 years the area hasn’t changed that much even with it’s proximity to Chiang Mai. It’s primarily rural and all the people from the area mix more readily than a few Km away in Chiang mai.
2. The successful self branding as a local boy .
And this is different than the Democrats branding Abhisit as an intellectual economist from Oxford/Eaton? It’s politics, push your good points and skim over your bad ones. A politician is a politician.
3. But then Thaksin has always been a divisive character with agressive, combative, bullying tactics being a highly successful strategy for him.
Thaksin may have even been more than you state but a couple of thing are undeniable. He got the country moving after the Asian Financial Crisis and became incredibly popular, and he ran the country like a CEO runs a company. I personally don’t have a problem with either of those tactics. Although you think it was a strategy to “maximize benefit to himself” all governments that have followed him and all the other minor parties have adopted and re-branded his TRT policies. This says much more about his ability to run the country than anything else ever could.
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32 Peter // Sep 11, 2010 at 12:28 pm
Unknown assailants fired five grenades with the M-79 grenade launchers at the Fifth Special Warfare Regiment in Chiang Mai’s Mae Rim district Thursday night (The Nation).
The above attack followed a prediction by Chiengmai MP Surapong on a top general’s plan to stage a coup in October (see Bkk Post a few days ago). Surapong claimed the coup’s pretext is to save state money from being grabbed by greedy politicians, but personally I think the motive may change in view of the coming 19 September “celebrations” (4th anniv of the 2006 coup and 4th month of the Ratchaprasong crackdown). From the 19th onwards, the temperature will rise up to the extent that Abhisit will no longer be able to run the country due to the resurgent reds’ activities and this worries the military. This is complicated by the shootings of two husband-wife teachers in the South and the pressure from the Saudis over the appointment of a police general (ironically based in Chiengmai earlier and resented by local people).
Just wait for the interesting times in October.
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33 Ricefield Radio // Sep 11, 2010 at 3:17 pm
Peter just to add a bit to your comments. It appears that the grenade attack was coordinated by multiple persons at once. Depending on who they were this could be a very important piece of information.
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34 Elspeth Sterling // Sep 12, 2010 at 7:14 am
Suzie?
เหยื่อล่า means ‘bait’ doesn’t it? Was the young red guard placed as bait to lure the state soldiers? Or is the Thai press tainting the facts?
I for one do not condone the use of human bait. I am uncomfortable with the idea that someone’s life is considered dispensible by some higher ‘elite’. The idea of democracy is that people’s lives, or opinions are equal. The use of human bait must come in the form of self sacrifice…or courage. To push someone out in front of you, into the firing line, is cowardly. Call it tactical if you like, but it sounds like the kind of rubbish behaviour we want rid of.
Do these people know what they want? Yes, they haven’t had much of a chance to understand virtue and values etc, but is ‘red’ just another shade of ‘yellow’?
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